Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Brace Yourſelf: Assume Little, Protect Yourſelf and Your Family, Stay Safe.

Occam's Razor....

In competing hypothesis, analyze the one which has the least assumptions. While more complicated solutions may be proven correct, however, in the absence of certainty, the simplest solutions should be entertained first.

Hanlon's Razor....

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

I bring up the two most commonly used Razors for a reason. Not to encourage their use, as those who favor them need no encouragement, but to caution about their use. A razor is not proof of anything; it's merely a thought tool for choosing a hypothesis to investigate and certain pressing situations pre-suppose hypothesis while uncertainty about a situation remains preeminant.
Which brings me to today’s topic. The CDC’s actions, or lack thereof to be more accurate, placing 100’s of people, our fellow Americans, at risk because they refuse to be adequately cautious about a deadly communciable disease. 
1.       They have no adequate method for screening passengers traveling to Ebola hotspots. The methods currently used are inaccurate in that insufficiently symptomatic cases may not be detected, and since Ebola is fully assymptomatic for up to 20 days from infection. Simply screening without isolation is not adequate.   
2.       No travel restrictions are in place for traveling to or from areas with epidemics.
3.       For the one, and only one case of Ebola entry into the US so far: Two people have been confirmed subsequently infected by that single entering case. Those two people were infected in a healthcare facility NOT in an uncontrolled environment. Signalling that efforts to contain infection while in a hospital were not effective.
4.       Of the two people who were infected by the original case, a possible secondary infection by one of those persons is already suspected.

5.       One of the two people who was infected by the original case traveled to and from a neighboring state by air and was diagnosed the day after returning.

Some might be inclined to use Occam’s razor and say the CDC is trying to get us killed while maintaining the façade of their designated function. Others might use Hanlon’s and conclude the CDC is criminally incompetent at controlling the spread of infection. I’d like to at this point avoid all of that speculation as it just isn’t necessary right now and stick to the facts. In all of this the CDC has offered many, many, many reassurances, and yet their efforts are demonstrably inadequate. This is a singular warning. The CDC now has demonstrated nearly negligible ability to stop infection from entering the US and clear inadequacy of response to the first case of Ebola imported to the US. Two people will likely die, and 100’s are at risk because they did not adequately evaluate and control the risk of subsequent infection. The benefit of the doubt is officially exhausted; Until the CDC actually demonstrates some competency at controlling the spread of this outbreak, it would be imprudent to accept their reassurances. Until such competence and willingness for proper action is demonstrated, it is prudent to assume proper action won’t be taken and the risk of infection and spread of the virus is elevated accordingly. The first Ebola patient was identified on October 1st. We are already at a potential 3rd generation patient of this infection. At a generation cycle of one week, with each patient infecting 1.5 people, in 20 weeks infection has spread to over 3000 people. At 30 weeks it’s almost 200,000. If each patient infects 2 people at 20 weeks the infection has spread to over a million people. Watch the rate of infection and efforts of containment very closely. The CDC will laude its sucesses. Ignore them and keep track of the failures, we are only concerned about their failures; When the failures stop so will Ebola. No matter how much assuaging is going on in the official channels keep a realistic tab of how fast the virus is spreading, particularly if it is in your area. Don’t depend on the CDC to stop this; know your risks in your life like air travel, anticipate spread of the virus, and take action to protect yourself ahead of an epidemic in your area. 

BREAKING UPDATE: Patient that traveled by airline the day prior to being diagnosed ...


Now I know you Occam fans think this is a slam dunk for malice. I would suggest you read all the coverage. Government employee grade stupidity and incompetence with a dash of apathy are certainly not out of the question.